Climate change increases the vulnerability of people in extreme poverty. Nearly 700 million people live in extreme poverty (World Bank, 2023). Climate change is expected to drive an additional 35–122 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 due to its adverse effects on food security, agricultural productivity, and the increased likelihood of extreme weather events (Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017). A large share of the world’s poorest people live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (Castañeda et al., 2018). These households are among the most vulnerable to disruptions caused by climate change, such as floods and droughts.

Climate-Resilient Graduation Programs

Graduation programs are a multifaceted innovation designed to help poor households move persistently out of extreme poverty. They combine several components intended to support sustained improvements in livelihoods. These typically include a one-off grant or interest-free asset transfer, often livestock, to help households start small businesses; a regular food or cash transfer during the first year of the program; enterprise development training; and hands-on coaching through high-frequency visits by program staff. Programs also commonly provide access to savings accounts, preventive healthcare services, and community mobilization committees. This approach was originally developed by BRAC in Bangladesh and has since been implemented in multiple countries (Banerjee et al., 2021).

Evidence shows that graduation programs generate sustained increases in income, consumption, food security, and assets. For example, BRAC’s graduation program in Bangladesh increased earnings by 21 percent and per-capita consumption by 11 percent four years after the asset transfer (Bandiera et al., 2017). Consumption gains persisted seven years after the program in Bangladesh and ten years after similar programs in India (Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2021). Graduation programs can generate benefits that exceed program costs, with benefit–cost ratios greater than three in some contexts (Bandiera et al., 2017). By helping households build productive assets, increase savings, and strengthen livelihoods, graduation programs can increase resilience to climate shocks and reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events (Banerjee et al., 2021; Bandiera et al., 2017).

Weather-Responsive Cash Transfers

Weather-responsive cash transfers are delivered in advance of predictable disasters, such as floods. These programs use forecasting models, remote sensing, and digital payment systems to provide financial support before climate shocks occur. Delivering transfers prior to disasters allows households to take proactive measures, such as relocating assets or purchasing food, rather than relying solely on post-disaster humanitarian assistance (Pople et al., 2024; Christian et al., 2025).

Evidence suggests that anticipatory transfers can strengthen resilience more effectively than traditional post-disaster assistance. In Nigeria, households that received cash transfers before a flood were less likely to adopt negative coping strategies and took more pre-emptive climate-adaptive actions than households that received transfers after the shock (Balana et al., 2023). In Bangladesh, households that received transfers prior to flooding experienced improved welfare, reduced asset loss, and greater ability to evacuate people and livestock and protect food stocks (Pople et al., 2024; Christian et al., 2025). Early transfers in response to drought in Niger increased food security by 8 percent and monthly food consumption by 17.6 percent compared with households receiving later transfers (Pople et al., 2025).

These programs complement longer-term approaches such as graduation programs by providing timely support during climate shocks. Together, climate-resilient graduation programs and weather-responsive cash transfers can help households in extreme poverty manage short-term risks while strengthening resilience to climate change over time.